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Wednesday, March 19, 2008

Use your brain! Don't pray pray! Err..should be "Don't play play"

Personal Comments on local & US market from rojak perspectives (for the next 6 to 9 months):

1. RM has been strengthening since Sep/2007, for more than 6 months now. I believe the rate of strengthening can't catch up with the rate of inflation. And I also believe strong RM won't do any good for Malaysia (it encourages more out-flow of RM to USD denominated goods and services). Ask yourself, what is the best time to exit Malaysia market, if you are a foreign funds manager here? Prolonged period of strengthened RM is also hurting export-oriented manufacturing industries. On the other hand, I speculate many importers are enjoying the strong RM but do not pass the benefits to consumers.
2. US goods have become cheaper for worldwide consumers. Yeah, US might be in recession, their housing prices might be dropping, their employment rates might be dropping, their dollars might be dropping, their consumption might be dropping, and etc.. You know what that means? Lower Costs, and that will translate to competitiveness. What? Inflation? Inflation is normally the nemesis of recession; it will go away if people start to save more. They are building up strength for the next bull all right
3. Inflation again, rising prices used to be co-related to rising production costs, but this round is mainly due to rising commodity prices. Many agree the driving force for the commodity prices could be trading speculation. Hmmm, I also agree. Look around, with internet, so many traders jumping in the trading pool. Kekeke. Little do they know they are dealing with Goliath, dreaming that they are the little David. The house always win. When the time is ripe, big boys will eat up all the late comers from top to bottom. After that, where the money will flow to? Back to their bank accounts or equities.

Lastly, conspiracy theory, western world and their side-kicks really do not want to see the rise up of China which they will have hard time to deal with. You can see the latest incidence of global pressures against China on Tibet Case + Olympic Boycott with your own freaking eyes..

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Words borrowed from Dr. Alexander Elder:

Trading is so exciting that it often makes amateurs feel high ...Nobody can get high and make money at the same time.

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